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Sea Level Rise Risk for Wales

The National Trust has warned of massive coastal erosion and flooding in Wales because of rising sea levels, caused by climate change. Over 100 miles of coastline are at risk from advancing seas, which could damage coastal tourist attractions. The National Trust has called for 'Urgent Action'.

The Trust owns much of Wales' coastline and it is considered an area of outstanding natural beauty. It has warned that 66 coastal sites are at risk, covering 1,572 hectares (3884 acres). Beaches are at risk of being washed away, cliffs of being eroded and coastal paths lost to the seas.

Sea level rise is a certainty as global warming melts the ice caps, but the extent of the rise is subject of much debate. The recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Februray 2007 lowered its estimate for sea level rise from its previous report in 2001. However, since the study started, 6 years ago, scientists working on glaciers have made further discoveries about the way that the glaciers melt. They now believe they melt much faster than was originally thought.

It used to be thought that it would take an extremely long period of time for the warmth from the sun to penetrate down to the bottom of a glacier, melting it completely. However, it is now realised that, as the surface of the glacier melts in the sun, melt water runs down through crevasses (large cracks) to the bottom of the glacier, warming it and lubricating its motion, causing it to break up, further accelerating the melt. This would explain the fact that the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting twice as fast as traditional theories predict.

Should these predictions turn out to be true, the rate of erosion and the risk of flooding could be even worse than feared.

Speaking to the BBC, Iwan Huws, director of National Trust Wales, said: "The challenges facing the National Trust provide a snapshot of how sea level rise and climate change will affect the whole of Wales.

"We have started to prepare for and adapt to the changing nature of the coastline, something that all levels of government and government agencies in Wales should be focussing on now as part of a co-ordinated response to climate change.

"No-one in Wales is more than 50 miles from the shore, and tourism is particularly dependent on our wonderful coast.

"Like King Canute, we can't control the ocean and command it to retreat. Instead, we must plan how to adapt to a future of advancing seas. The first step is to raise awareness of what is at stake.

"This should strengthen the call to reduce our carbon footprint, but we also need to adapt to the changes underway and plan for the future of coastal communities. "

It has long been known that the East coast of England is being eaten away by the sea at an astonishing rate, taking land, roads and buildings with it. But, this is the first time that the National Trust has warned of coastal erosion and flooding in coastal areas of Wales.

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